GDP figures released this morning show unexpected rise of 0.3% for November

By rotide
Created 12/01/2024 - 10:21

Any rise in growth is a good rise but it isn't big enough for one trumpet as yet. The UK economy is undoubtedly fragile and the stable economic scenario that would allow the Bank of England to start easing interest rates isn't there. With October GDP showing a drop of the same amount, another negative announcement would have had economists and forecasters readying their next month's recession commentary, which has been headed off for now.  However, these figures are welcomed, caused mainly by gains in services and a two week-long Black Friday.

Inflation is not yet fully under control and the very recent military action related to the Israel Hamas war, causing a lot of global shipping to consider much longer routes, avoiding the Red Sea, may cause prices to head upwards as delivery costs will be significantly higher ships and tankers taking two to three days extra but substantially safer, going the long way around Africa to avoid conflict.

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