The unemployment figures just released from the
US are much better than expected and economists are expecting this data to be
the catalyst for the start of interest rates hikes in the States. A very
similar set of circumstances exists here in the UK without the clear economic
data to make such a move certain but you can bet markets will have already
moved substantially in that direction .Interest movements will only be ¼% when
they start but they may well be quite regular.
In the US the first upward movement is forecast
as December, that looks too early for us in the UK but Jan/Feb looks more likely.
David Lamb, head of dealing at the forex
specialists FEXCO, comments:
"The US
economy has just turned off gravity for the Dollar. Such a stellar rate of job
creation has sent the Greenback into orbit. With America's jobless rate
tumbling to its lowest level since April 2008 - and the economy adding jobs at
a truly breathtaking rate - any doubts about its strength can be cast aside.The
prospect of the Fed raising interest rates in December is now on a par with
turkey on Thanksgiving - all but certain.Such clarity, and the bullish euphoria
of such an expectation-smashing number, have propelled the Dollar to
multi-month highs.With concern lingering about the strength of the global
economy, such titanic performance from the US economy has turned the Greenback
into a beacon of hope for investors.
"With a
December rate hike now seemingly a done deal, huge inflows into the Dollar
should drive it even higher in the coming weeks."
Robert Craig, Private Client Investment Manager at MB Capital,
said
"October's
non-farm payrolls number wasn't great, it was gargantuan. If rates don't go up
on the back of this exceptional number, you suspect they never will.The fact
that average hourly earnings also rose strongly was the icing on the cake. Add
this data to Yellen's comments earlier this week and you have to conclude that
a rate rise is now imminent.
In the short term, this is
likely to trigger increased volatility but if rates edge up and the world
doesn't end, markets will start gaining confidence. For a while now, it has
felt like the Fed has wanted to clear the psychological hurdle of that first
rate rise, and it's now got that opportunity."