Inflation back

With a Bank of England target level for inflation of 2%  and current levels not trending either way but bouncing around zero, the announcement by the Office of National Statistics that inflation has moved from minus 0.1 to plus 0.1% for November, is just nodded through.

Usually at this time of year the utility companies can spoil the party by raising the price of home and business energy and helping raise the inflation rate, but with the world awash with surplus fuel, they can't do that this year. Or the early part of next for that matter.

However the interesting economic data this week isn't going to come from these shores, it will come from the US in the form of a potential rate rise, the first since 2006 and very meaningful if it happens. The greater majority of economic forecasters both sides of the pond think it will and today is the day.

This will reinforce the case for UK rates to start moving higher. A UK interest rate rise, almost certainly ¼%,  is not going to be that far away and on its own will not cause earth shaking consequences but  there is a good chance that interest rates will be 1% higher by this time next year.